USDCHF Analysis

USDCHF is currently close to its historical low level of 0.96360 recorded in March 2008. The monthly and weekly candles however show that the pair is still descending. This could be attributable to the general weakness of USD against most major currencies. I must admit however, the pair is very tempting for long. The best option if you are trading this currency long-term is to wait for the trend reverse and follow it. A weekly candle close above 0.98963, which is a very strong support will confirm the reversal. This is an area I will be watching


For a short term trade the sell signal was given by M15 on 0.97161. The best option for short term trading is to wait for another signal sell signal on M15.

The points are clearly indicated in the charts below

Larger Picture for AUDUSD

This is the larger picture for AUDUSD. The next target for the bull is 0.98400 before a retrace is expected.

I don't trade AUDUSD regularly, but that is where I am watching for a long term trade. As you can see, I have a sell order waiting at 0.99990. This is not recommended for short-term traders. This is purely a long term trade and I am willing to wait for over 500 pips or more. This can take weeks of even months to happen so be warned.

I don't expect it to get there, but would be a pleasant surprise if it does. 0.98400 - 0.99000 is the area I will be willing to pull the trigger manually, if I see a sell signal on the weekly. At that point AUD will damn too expensive against the dollars.

These areas are obvious in the daily and weekly charts attached.

Happy trading!

Concrete Zones

I posted the charts earlier. I re-post again it to show that the analysis is still valid until the range between 1.60000 to 1-53214 is broken either way

For now price will only move to the next level if the daily closed above the resistance line at around 1.58535 or move back to where it came and close below 1.57147.

It is always better to trade within established concrete zones. That way, you will be insulated from the noisy signals all around you.

That is how I trade. The daily shows me the trend, H4 gives the signal and I use M15 to enter my trades. If you trade this way you might miss some trades, but you will only take first class trades.

Cable out of 200 pips box

Cable has broken out of the 200 pips box and appears to be heading toward the next box. Price movement is simply a matter of habits. History keeps repeating itself over and over again.



Look at the candle between between 1.57147 and 1.58534 both on the way up and down. I single H4 candle. Also look at the candle on the way down from 1.60000 which closed on 1.56396 and the current candle which took which close outside the box.



If we break the resistance at 1.58535 our next destination is most likely the next zone between 1.58535 - 1.60000. If the resistance hold however, we have landing where the candle took of from i.e. 1.57000 - 1-55000

BOJ Intervention - JPY

The intervention by the Japenese Government was an extra-ordinary event. However, if your look closely at the two H4 charts below for GBBJPY and USDJPY you will clearly see that the H4 was on a bullish move, when the intervention occurred. H4 clearly explose the move so also the current retrace. USDJPY was even more exact to the point at the point of intervention and the retrace.

GBPUSD - 200 Pips Box

I have earlier explained the benefit of daily box system. The strategy is simple, draw the box on the daily chart and go down to H4 for trend and M15 for entry. Using this system, you will be able to see price movement clearly.

I have earlier explained the benefit of daily box system. The strategy is simple, draw the box on the daily chart and go down to H4 for trend and M15 for entry. Using this system, you will be able to see price movement clearly.

We now have another 200 pips box. The RSI is a guide as to the upper and lower range of the price action within the box. Carefully observe how price behave no mather the time frame around 50 mark on RSI.





Cable has broken out of the 200 pips box and appears to be heading toward the next box. Price movement is simply a matter of habits. History keeps repeating itself over and over again.



Look at the candle between between 1.57147 and 1.58534 both on the way up and down. I single H4 candle. Also look at the candle on the way down from 1.60000 which closed on 1.56396 and the current candle which took which close outside the box.



If we break the resistance at 1.58535 our next destination is most likely the next zone between 1.58535 - 1.60000. If the resistance hold however, we have landing where the candle took of from i.e. 1.57000 - 1-55000




Happy trading!

GBPUSD - Daily 170-Pip Flag

The cable has now formed another 170 pips flat on the daily. It has been trading within the range for the past 5 days. A break out of the curren box will determine the next direction. The advantage of this is to The three charts below give idea on the trading opportunities within this range. 1.54198 and 1.53274 are the major areas to watch out for a break upside and downside respectively. If you want to trade this wait for the next H4 candle.

Trading Strategy Explained

Let me use this opportunity to explain and make some clarifications in respect of following aspects of my trading strategy.

a) Candle trades
b) Monthly chart
c) Weekly chart
d) Daily Chart
e) 4-Hour chart



Candle trades:

For the candle trades I use weekly and monthly candles and I have a micro account with Alpari which I use for these trades, because I am still experimenting. However, whenever a unique opportunity present and it aligns with my trade set in the charts, I replicate such trades on my main account. For the candle trades, I don't use RSI. I simply follow the candle, if the candle is bearish, I will go short and if the candle is bullish, I will go long. If you want to try this, open a separate micro account or even try it on a demo account over a period of time to properly understand it.





Long Term trades:



For long term trade, I follow the daily, weekly and monthly charts using RSI as a guide. The signals on these period are usually few, but of the best quality.



Monthly RSI gave a buy signal in March 2009 and over the next 4 months, price rose by about 3000 pips. The next signal was given in June 2010 and yield about 1800 pip. Using the monthly RSI, there is no signal to sell yet.



Weekly RSI gave six signals on the chart 3 buy and 3 sell as shown on the chart.



Daily RSI gave three signals so far, 1 buy and 2 sell as shown on the chart.



I attach herewith a daily, weekly and monthly charts for GBPUSD to illustrate the points. The place where the signals are given highlighted in blue boxes.



How do you interprete all these based on where we are today for your long term trade?



Monthly: The buy signal was given in June, if you miss it wait for another signal. Most importantly, don't trade in the middle of channel. You can get your trades on other timeframe.



Weekly: The weekly gave a buy in May and sell signal in August indicated by the spots highlighted. Price is currently on 50 points. Wait for another signal if you want to trade weekly long term.



Daily: The daily gave the sell signal in between August 2-4 and has currently cross the 50 point mark down. The next signal you should watch out for is buy. If you miss the signal in August, wait for the next one.



For a trader who missed all these signal for medium term, trade, what does he do?



If you miss all this signals, the next option is to trade intra-day using H4. The horizontal line on the RSI is your guide.



For a trader who misses all of these signals, what does he do?



The best option is to stay out on the sideline and wait for the next signal, because that is the only way to be a successful trader.



I took time to clearly enumerate the steps to show that is important for a trader to be methodical in his approach. If a set-up is not right, ignore such trades. To give you more trading opportunities, you can monitor between 2-4 majors and only trade the one that presents the best opportunity at any point in time.



Happy trading!