GBPUSD - End of 1st Quarter 2011

The cable broke out of the concrete zone and the pullback currently sits pretty well on the concrete zone both on the daily and weekly charts. The target appears to be 1.70000 to retest the highest point in August 2009. This will then create a new range of 1.64000 to 1.70000. The weekly candle will confirm a breakout from any range.



I attach the weekly, daily and H4 charts in support of the above analysis



Enjoy your trading for the rest of the week!

GBPJPY - See where we are!

[quote=Articulate;4548624]



GBPJPY moves is usually 1000 pips per movement with a pause every 500 pips. The 1000 pips support and resistance points are depicted by the yellow lines, while the 500 pips resting points are shown by aqua color.



The red zone on the 14 days period RSI is the sell zone, while the blue zone is the buy zone. The horizontal line on the daily RSI tells you when a movement is weak or about to reverse. The daily chart is the best guide for this style.


The charts are attached. Have a colourful weekend![/quote]





I mentioned that the above posting is classical. See where we are on the weekly and daily charts. For short term traders, I attached H4 charts. I intend to post GBPJPY charts at the beginning of every quarter. Expect another one in May 2011

The blue zones

See where we are on the blue zones. It is always useful to plan ahead. I will be updating the blue zones every two weeks

Bigger Picture for AUDUSD

Audusd is currently trying to move back to the top of the weekly trendline from 0.80634, when the took off to the currently high. The trendline is what it holding the pair from rising higher for now. If the weekly successful opened and closed above the trendline, then the trend will resume on the higher time frame. If the trendline holds, the a fall to 1.02500 which is the base for the current move is possible. A fall below will drop the pair back to its concrete zone 1.02500 - 0.95000 where it traded for the past 6 months.

My view is that a big reverse is in the horizon, the monthly, weekly, daily are all dangerously close to the overbought zone. A touch of 50 point mark is due on the daily RSI.

Recommendation: short whenever H4 enters the yellow zone and take profit if it drops back to the 50 point mark on H4 RSI

This is the bigger picture.

Cable still respecting the the concrete zone

Cable is still respecting the concrete zone and the pressure is to the downside. For any move to the upside to be valid, the pin on H4 will have to be neutralised by another H4 candle above the pin.

GBPUSD - 450 Pips Box

I have said it several times in my previous posts, it is always helpful to have the bigger picture in mind when trading.



For the past 10 weeks the cable has been trading withing a 450 pips range. For 11 weeks, it has been Bull+Bear+Bull+Bear, etc, the only exception being last week and this week which is currently Bull+Bull. If the pattern is to continue this week's candle might end up being a bear. The pair has thus create a 450 pips concrete zone. This a strong manifestation of consolidation between 1.60000 and 1.64000, the middle of the zone is somewhere around 1.62000. To break out of this zone, a weekly candle need to open and close.



How do you trade concrete zone? Short as near as possible to the top of the zone and go long as near as possible to the base of the concrete zone using H4 candle as guide and M15 for the best entry. As for stop loss, set them outside the zone (It can as low as 3 pips or as high as 50 pips depending on your risk appetite). A false breakout outside the zone of about 50 pips is possible. Trading this way, you avoid chasing every price movement. It is most profitable and less stressful to have the bigger picture in mind.





I attach the weekly, daily and H4 charts clearly illustrating the above analysis.